Definition of Peak Oil: "Peak oil, as part of the fossil fuel depletion, is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum production is reached, after which the rate of production enters its terminal decline." source - wikipedia.org

TheOilDrum.com Archive 2005-2010

Dr Hirsch on CNBC Fri. Jun. 20 2008 | 08 13 00

The Hirsch report on MARE Blogspot

Peak oil: september 2006 video doc click here

Peak Oil: Matt Simmons winter 2007 lecture

The Scale Of the Peak Oil Catastrophe

The Oil Supply Shock : recorded march 2007

An interview with Richard Heinberg on Peak Oil, : February 06, 2007

Richard Heinberg Describes Peak Oil: recorded June 2007

Oil, Smoke & Mirrors

The Oil Supply Shock : oil future price

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A tenfold increase in oil price over the last 8 years (1999 to 2007) should rise anybody's eyebrows ...

Peak Oil is about the "Peak" in oil production... we sir have peaked, we did so in 2006. We are in what's called an undulating plateau and will soon enter a irreversible decline in oil production.

We will NEVER run out of oil, we simply will run out of CHEAP oil... easy to find and produce oil... I hope this sinks in clearly.

We discovered oil, found large deposits of oil and we produced those first, they were the easiest to get at. Most of those fields are in decline now, we're now going after the more difficult, smaller deposits...

Please go to www.theoildrum.com and do a bit of reading.

Kind Regards,
M. Simmons

Update June 20 2008 Megaprojects

Wiki oil megaprojects data indicates just under 6 mbd new capacity for 2008, based on a delayed project peak oil basis. An eight year average is a better statistic and indicates that about 4 mbd of new production will come online this year, shown in the chart below.

Below is an updated chart from wiki oil megaprojects. The most recent megaproject update is the delay of Khurais crude, condensate and NGL startup from Dec 2009 to Jan 2010.

World Crude, Condensate and NGL Supply Additions - click to enlarge

There is just enough new production coming online to offset existing total liquids decline for this year and hopefully most of 2009.

World Supply, Demand and Price to 2012 - click to enlarge

However, world crude and condensate project capacity additions are unlikely to be sufficient to offset existing C&C field natural decline rates, resulting in irreversible net C&C decline.

World Crude and Condensate Production to 2012 - click to enlarge

World Oil Forecasts Including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE - Update Feb 2008

Executive Summary (credit "the oil drum")

World total liquids production (Fig 1) remains on a peak plateau since 2006 and is forecast to fall off this peak plateau in 2009. Increasing numbers of oil experts are forecasting impending peak production plateaus. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the current peak production of 87.2 mbd occurred on January 2008. As long as demand continues increasing then prices will continue increasing.
Forecast world crude oil and lease condensate (C&C) production retains its 2005 peak (Fig 2). The forecast to 2100 shows declining C&C production, using a bottom up forecast to 2012 (Fig 3). The forecast to 2012 shows a slight decline to 2009, followed by a 3%/yr decline rate to 2012.
World oil discovery rates peaked in 1965 (Fig 4) and production has exceeded discovery for every year since the mid 1980s. Discoverable reserves in giant fields also peaked during the mid 1960s (Fig 5). The time lag between world peak discovery in 1965 and world peak production in 2005 of 40 years is similar to the time lag of 42 years for the USA Lower 48 (Fig 6).
World C&C year on year production changes to October 2007 and November 2007 (Figs 7 and 8) show significant declines for Mexico, North Sea and Saudi Arabia and significant increases for Russia, Azerbaijan and Angola. As Russia is likely to be on a production plateau and Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE have probably passed peak production, the world C&C production will continue to decline slowly.
Saudi Arabia retains its 2005 C&C peak (Fig 10), which is the same as the peak year for world C&C (Fig 2). Saudi Arabia C&C production has dropped to 9.0 mbd which is 0.6 mbd less than its peak in 2005. It is now almost a certainty that Saudi Arabia passed peak C&C production of 9.6 mbd in 2005 (Figs 9 and 10).
Kuwait retains its 2006 minor C&C peak (Fig 12). Kuwait C&C production has now dropped to 2.5 mbd which is less than its peak in 2006. There is a strong likelihood that Kuwait has passed its minor 2006 peak (Figs 11 and 12). Kuwait’s major peak was 3.3 mbd in 1972.
UAE retains its 2006 C&C peak (Fig 14). UAE C&C production has now dropped to 2.6 mbd, adjusted for maintenance, which is just less than its peak in 2006. There is a reasonable likelihood that UAE passed its 2006 peak (Figs 13 and 14).
World natural gas plant liquids is forecast to increase due mainly to new OPEC projects (Fig 15). World ethanol and XTL production is forecast to almost double by 2012 (Fig 16). World processing gains are forecast to decline slowly to 2012 (Fig 17)

......................................................................................................

An update on the latest production numbers from the EIA along with graphs/charts of different oil production forecasts.

World oil production (EIA Monthly) and various forecasts (2001-2027)

World oil production (EIA Monthly) for crude oil + NGL. The median forecast is calculated from 13 models that are predicting a peak before 2020 (Bakhiarti, Smith, Staniford, Loglets, Shock model, GBM, ASPO-[70,58,45], Robelius Low/High, HSM). 95% of the predictions sees a production peak between 2008 and 2010 at 77.5 - 85.0 mbpd (The 95% confidence interval is computed using a bootstrap technique). Click to Enlarge.

Executive Summary:

Broad revision (from 1980 to 2004) by the EIA this month but not significant in amplitude.
Monthly production peaks are unchanged:

All Liquids: the peak is still July 2006 at 85.54 mbpd ( 0.11 mbpd), the year to date average production in 2007 (6 months) is 84.28 mbpd ( 0.02 mbpd), down 0.07 mbpd from 2006 for the same period.
Crude Oil + NGL: the peak date remains May 2005 at 82.09 mbpd ( 0.01 mbpd), the year to date average production for 2007 (6 months) is 81.20 mbpd ( 0.04 mbpd), down 0.06 mbpd from 2006.
Crude Oil + Condensate: the peak date remains May 2005 at 74.30 mbpd ( 0.15 mbpd), the year to date average production for 2007 (6 months) is 73.23 mbpd ( 0.14 mbpd), down 0.25 mbpd from 2006.
NGPL: the peak date is still February 2007 at 8.03 mbpd ( 0.21 mbpd), the year to date average production for 2007 (6 months) is 7.97 mbpd ( 0.18 mbpd), up 0.19 mbpd from 2006.

Decline in crude oil + condensate continues: June 2007 estimate for crude oil + condensate is 72.82 mbpd compared to 73.11 mbpd one year ago and 73.92 mbpd two years ago.
Average forecast: the average forecast for crude oil + NGL based on 13 different projections (Figure above) is showing a kind of production plateau around 81 +/- 4 mbpd with a decline after 2010 +/- 1 year.

There's more…

BREAKING NEWS december 2007

The IEA is sounding the alarm about peak oil. They are admitting that supply will not be able to keep up with demand by the question below to Fatih Birol, Chief Economist and Head of the Economic Analysis Division of the International Energy Agency (IEA) :

Where will the projected extra 25 mb/d oil production come from?
Fatih Birol: We know of approved projects around the world that will bring 25 mb/d by 2015 (note that this is still less than the 37.5 mb/d actually required). If the supply turns out to be less than this, we are in serious trouble. If these projects do not come online, the wheels will fall off our energy system. (Yes, those were his exact words) ...

I added up all of the peak flows from projects on the soon to be completed http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Megaprojects . Excluding the unapproved Kashagan project and including a small percentage of 2007 projects, the total new optimistic peak capacity project additions from 2007 to 2012 is just over 27 mbd. This number is close to Birol's 25 mbd.

The IEA has admitted above that non OPEC production is about to peak. Birol says that there are only 25 mbd of approved project capacity. As this is just barely enough to replace lost capacity from his estimate from above of 23.9 mbd for existing field decline, Birol is effectively admitting that world oil production is on a peak plateau now. If a slightly higher underlying decline rate of 4.5%/yr is used then world total liquids supply is in slow decline now, rather than a plateau.

The peak oil plateau is forecast by Sadad al Husseini, ex Exec VP Saudi Aramco, in the chart below

click to enlarge - Oil & Money 2007 Conference, October 31, 2007, London source: http://www.energyintel.com/om/program.asp?year=2007

To maintain growth in production capacity, the oil industry needs to invest about $5.4 trillion between now and 2030, the Paris-based IEA agency said last month in its 2007 World Energy Outlook. Question is, will the oil industry do that in the perspective of a depleting reserve base......

GAS Outlook dec 2007

OECD European gas production looks set to peak in 2008. After that, falling production combined with rising demand will see OECD European gas imports wanting to rise from current 197 BCM per annum to 442 BCM per annum by 2020. Where will this gas come from and how will rising European imports affect N America and the rest of the world?

Figure 1 OECD Europe gas production and conceptual forecast. Click all charts to enlarge

There's more…

... or is Europe running low on natural gas?

OECD Europe gas imports may grow by 295 BCM per annum by 2020. In the same time period, global LNG production is set to grow by 350 BCM per annum. So we Europeans should be OK, so long as the USA, Japan, China, South Korea, India and Taiwan are not planning to expand their LNG imports as well. (??)

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Last Updated: Dec 30, 2007

Biofuels

The Implications of Biofuel Production for United States Water Supplies, Nov 29, 2007
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3285

Biofuel progress, a report from Dubuque, Oct 17, 2007
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3099

The Mythical Ethanol Threat, May 29, 2007
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2585

How a market for sustainable bio-energy is being developed, May 8, 2007
http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/2521

US News and World Report looks at Ethanol, Feb 6, 2007
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2252

Key Questions on Energy Options, Jan 24, 2007
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2199

Cellulosic Ethanol vs. Biomass Gasification, Oct 26, 2006
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/10/22/211321/89

Whither Cellulosic Ethanol?, Aug 16, 2006
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/8/15/13634/6716

Climate Change and Electricity From Biomass, Aug 1, 2006
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/7/28/19350/1306

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TheOilDrum.com Archive 2005-2010

World Oil Forecasts Including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE - Update Feb 2008

Executive Summary:

BREAKING NEWS december 2007

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